With Arsenal confirming Raya's permanent signing, what do the numbers say about his performances last season?
David Raya’s initial loan move from Brentford to Arsenal last summer proved to be a talking point that prevailed well beyond the transfer window’s close.
Brought in on the prerogative of manager Mikel Arteta, the Spanish goalkeeper displaced a reliable Aaron Ramsdale from the Gunners’ starting eleven and held down the number one spot throughout the 2023/24 campaign.
Goalkeeper legends far and wide questioned Arteta’s decision. David Seaman came out in staunch support of Ramsdale. Peter Schmeichel questioned the problematic dynamic that could arise from having ‘two number ones’ in the same dressing room. Shaka Hislop, recently speaking to Goalkeeper.com, reaffirmed this sentiment regarding goalkeeper hierarchy.
And, for some months, Raya failed to prove beyond reasonable doubt the credibility of Arteta’s decision.
Arsenal’s thrilling 4-3 victory away at Luton Town sent the Gunners five points clear at the top of the Premier League in December. It was a cagey victory against a plucky Luton side; a victory achieved despite a poor showing from the Spaniard in the away goal.
Yet, post-Luton, something changed. It was as if Raya had bounced up off the bottom of the pool and was kicking his way to the surface.
Goalkeeper xG data indicates that, over the course of the 2023/24 season, Raya was actually an upgrade on Ramsdale (from 2022/23).
His consistency after that tough day out at Kenilworth Road went a long way to Arsenal’s more assured defensive performances. Indeed, the Spaniard was worth around one additional goal every nine games to Arsenal, vs Ramsdale last year with an overall value in goals per 90 minutes of +0.21.
Over the course of the season, he was worth nearly four extra goals to Arsenal per Goalkeeper xG’s maths.
This is an overall improvement on Ramsdale’s metric of +0.10 over the 2022/23 season - though still positive.
Interestingly, it is not in the shot-stopping department that Raya has bettered Ramsdale. His shot-stopping has generally been worse. Moreover, Raya has more frequently made big mistakes on the ball.
However, his much stronger overall shot-preventing (bettering Ramsdale’s 22/23 score by +0.18 goals) was such an upgrade that they compensated for the more frequent distributive errors and weaker shot stopping.
Over the whole season, Goalkeeper xG finds that last year Raya was worth approximately two additional points to Arsenal vs Ramsdale in 2022/23.
Because Arsenal went from 84 to 89 points (22/23 on 23/24), we can therefore attribute 40% of this increase to Raya’s presence, with the other 60% of the increase coming from general improvement across the rest of the team.
With the Spaniard’s loan move now made permanent, questions and rumours continue to swell around Ramsdale’s future at the Emirates. For now, the only certainty is the Arsenal goalposts will remain red and yellow, rather than red and white in 2024/25.
