Goalkeeper xG data proves it was vital Newcastle signed a new number two following the impact Pope’s injury had on their 2023/24 campaign.
Just one day after club number two Martin Dubravka headed home from the EUROs after a commendable Slovakian performance against England, Newcastle United announced a double acquisition in the goalkeeper department.
The club's double capture of Nottingham Forest goalkeeper Odysseas Vlachodimos alongside veteran John Ruddy saw their goalkeeper department swell to five within a day.
The new signings join a working group already comprising Mark Gillespie, who was awarded a year’s contract extension in May of this year, alongside Nick Pope and Dubravka.
Last season, the injury Pope sustained in December of 2023 saw Dubravka thrust back into the starting spot at St James’ Park. He was deputised by Loris Karius, whose return to the Premier League had been met with intrigue. Newcastle finished the season in 7th, failing to capitalise upon their Champions League spot finish last year with Aston Villa becoming the ‘big six's’ most serious challenger.
On paper, Dubravka, with over 140 appearances between the sticks for Newcastle, seemed a perfectly competent replacement. Whilst the Slovakian goalkeeper had fallen down the pecking order in the North East in recent season, he’d spent the previous season on loan at Manchester United and had only been away from regular starting minutes for one campaign.
The 23 matches that Dubravka played for Newcastle in 2023/24, however, proved how vital it was that Newcastle strengthened their back up goalkeeper options.
Goalkeeper xG data shows that Nick Pope’s injury was significantly damaging for the Magpies over the course of 2023/24. His overall value in goals per 90 (+0.32) in the 15 matches Pope played starkly outranks Dubravka’s contribution of -0.27.
Pope outperformed Dubravka in every Goalkeeper xG metric in the games he played, and this swing resulted in Newcastle conceding approximately 14 more goals over the course of the season.
This leakage cost them approximately eight points which is the difference between finishing fourth and making the Champions League, and finishing seventh and and only making the Europa Conference League.
Though Dubravka’s distribution was actually generally better than Pope’s, a big distributive mistake against Bournemouth outweighed this.
Ex-Forest manager Steve Cooper hailed Vlachodimos’ character when speaking about the Greek goalkeeper last season. ‘He's very professional, a good family man and he has good experience. He has a calmness in his personality and his game. He's a talented and high-level goalkeeper who has good confidence in himself’, said Cooper.
It is widely expected that Dubravka will move on during this summer window.
